Peter Magyar and “Joe American”
If the US continues to follow the Hungarian playbook, successful opposition to Trump may come from inside the Republican Party
(NB: The following analysis is prepared with the extensive help of Perplexity AI)
Much attention has been paid to the fact that Viktor Orban, longtime leader of Hungary, is the darling of the far right, including Donald Trump and some of Trump’s “thought leaders” like Tucker Carlson. The Hungarian leader’s playbook has been studied as a predicter – so far largely accurate – of what and how Donald Trump wants to remake America. It may thus be useful to keep an eye on developments in the small, Central European nation to see what clues they continue to hold for how events in the US may evolve.
It is significant that today, after almost 20 years in power, Orban faces his greatest opposition. And the opposition is not from any of the opposition parties who have tried to defeat him during his long rule; rather, it is from a politician who grew up in Orban’s own Party (FIDESZ) but broke off to form a splinter Party, the Respect and Freedom Party (Tisza - also the name of the second largest river in Hungary).
Peter Magyar (which translates to “Peter Hungarian” in Hungarian, equivalent to an American politician being called “Joe American”) is a Hungarian politician and lawyer who has emerged as the main challenger to Prime Minister Viktor Orban in Hungary's political landscape. He is the incumbent President of the Respect and Freedom (Tisza) Party, which has become Hungary's largest opposition party[1]. Magyar, a former Fidesz member and handsome ex-husband of former justice minister Judit Varga, gained national attention in February 2024 when he resigned from all government-related positions, expressing dissatisfaction with Fidesz's governance[1].
Magyar's chances of defeating Orban appear promising based on recent developments:
1. Strong polling performance: As of March 2025, Magyar's Tisza party leads in polls with 46% support among decided voters, compared to 37% for Orban's Fidesz[2]. This lead has slightly narrowed since November but remains significant.
2. Successful rallies: Magyar has organized large-scale demonstrations against the government, including one in April 2024 that drew hundreds of thousands of protesters[1].
3. Electoral success: In the 2024 European Parliamentary elections, Magyar's party came second behind Fidesz, gaining nearly 30% of the votes – the highest for any non-Fidesz party since 2006[1].
4. Broad appeal: Magyar's conservative background and anti-corruption stance have resonated with voters, particularly young, urban voters[3]. His message of reuniting the nation and addressing economic issues has gained traction[4].
Notwithstanding the above, Magyar does face significant challenges:
1. Government opposition: Fidesz is expected to deploy extensive resources to undermine Magyar and Tisza, including state money, loyal media, and institutions[5].
2. Party development: Magyar needs to transform Tisza from a "one-man show" into a robust party structure capable of challenging Fidesz nationwide[3].
3. Economic factors: Orban is focusing on economic promises and landmark investments to regain support[5].
While Magyar has made substantial inroads, the 2026 election outcome remains uncertain. His ability to maintain momentum, withstand government pressure, and address Hungary's economic challenges will be crucial in determining his chances of defeating Orban[5][3].
Magyar’s campaign against Orban also provides clues about what a centrist Republican challenger to Trump may offer. The key themes of his campaign are:
1. Economic Reforms and Cost of Living Crisis
· Magyar has emphasized addressing Hungary's cost of living crisis, proposing measures such as reducing the value added tax (VAT) on basic food staples to 5% and lowering taxes on fruits and vegetables. He also plans to eliminate pensions below the subsistence minimum and expand family support programs, including tax exemptions for mothers with three or more children and single parents[1][2].
· He criticized the government's economic mismanagement, citing soaring food inflation (60% since 2021) and Hungary's failure to converge economically with the EU despite substantial EU funding[2].
2. Anti-Corruption and Governance
· Magyar has made combating corruption a central theme, denouncing the concentration of wealth among oligarchs linked to Fidesz and the misuse of EU funds. He pledged to join the European Public Prosecutor's Office and recover frozen EU funds[1][2].
· He has also criticized the government's propaganda and lack of transparency, calling for honesty about Hungary's challenges[1].
3. Social Services and Infrastructure
· Magyar has promised to overhaul neglected sectors such as healthcare, education, and transport, all of which he claims have suffered under Orban's rule[2].
· He plans to reform child protection services, which are plagued by staff shortages and inefficiencies[2].
4. EU Relations
· Magyar advocates for reestablishing strong ties with the European Union, positioning Hungary as a cooperative member state. He views securing EU funds as critical for restarting the economy[1][2].
5. National Unity
· Magyar aims to "reunite the nation" by reducing political polarization, ending hate speech, and fostering inclusivity. He promises to represent all Hungarians regardless of political affiliation[1].
6. Foreign Policy
· In contrast to Orban’s pro-Russia stance, Magyar supports Ukraine in its conflict with Russia. He has urged Orban to pressure Vladimir Putin for a ceasefire agreement[1].
These issues reflect Magyar's strategy of presenting himself as a reformist alternative to Orban while addressing pressing economic and social concerns in Hungary.
Of course, there are enormous differences between the US and Hungary which make any comparison imperfect at best. The US is 35 times the size of Hungary (whose population has declined by 10% over the term of Orban’s leadership). Hungary is also part of the EU, from which it has received huge financial assistance (from 20014 to today, $34 billion in EU funds making it the largest recipient of funds per capita of any EU member). Further, Hungary has a wildly different history than the US with virtually none of the political, cultural, and social norms in common. Still, there is really no country in the world comparable to the US so any case study will be imperfect. The Hungarian example is notable not only because it has been repeated by so many so often as the inspiration for Trump but also because Trump himself has repeatedly identified Orban as “very smart…he’s fantastic.” The two stayed in close touch during the time Trump was out of office. It will be interesting to see if the US Republican party can produce its own “Joe American.”
Sources
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Péter_Magyar
https://www.dw.com/en/majority-wants-new-hungary-says-opposition-leader-peter-magyar/a-71992118
https://balkaninsight.com/2025/01/16/hungary-in-2025-testing-the-limits-of-orbans-economic-optimism/
https://www.dw.com/en/majority-wants-new-hungary-says-opposition-leader-peter-magyar/a-71992118
Thank you. This was enlightening and hopeful.