Israel will be 75 in May. I would never have thought Israel would look like it does now, at the time of this milestone birthday. The controversy over the Netanyahu Government’s “Judicial Reform,” is widely agreed to be one of the greatest challenges to the survival of a democratic AND Jewish Israel in its history. While many assumed the greatest threat to Israel would come from the 450 million Arabs in and around the country, in fact, it seems to be coming from Israeli Jews. Who’d a thunk it?
Quite rightly, this issue has become front page news all over the world. What is often hidden, however, is one of the underlying issues of the controversy: the growing imbalance in political power between the “religious” (Haredi) and “secular” segments of Jewish Israelis. As is often the case, demographics go a long way to explain the issue. From the time of modern Israel’s founding by largely secular, left-leaning European Jews (creators of the now almost extinct kibbutz movement) to the present, the country has experienced a seismic demographic shift. The Haredi population of Israel is growing twice as fast as the secular population (1) such that by 2050, Haredim will comprise 1/3 of Israel’s Jewish population. Israel’s population itself is booming, currently at 9.7 million, projected in 2015 to be about 16 million (the approximate size - and density - of The Netherlands today) (2). This population shift has huge implications, only the first of which is being felt now in the Judicial Reform battle. To add some color to the implications of this shift; consider the following few indicators:
Secular Israelis pay 6 times more in taxes than Haredim, amounting to 98% of total Israeli tax revenues. And while Haredim pay just 2% of total taxes, 26% of Haredi households are primarily supported by government payments. 51% of Haredim live below the Israeli poverty line with 60% of Haredim classified as “poor.” (4)
Haredim are not only substantially poorer, but they are less healthy, and have far lower levels of education than non-Haredi Jews and in some categories, lower than non-Jewish Israelis (Arab Israelis are approximately 20% of Israel’s population). (1)
In 71% of Haredi families, women are the primary wage earners. They are also almost exclusively responsible for household chores (cooking cleaning, laundry) as well as childcare. (2)
More than 90% of West Bank settlers are orthodox, projected to rise from 500,000 today to 1.1 million in 2050 (3)
Military service is compulsory in Israel for both men (3 years + reserve duty) and women (2 years), except NOT for Haredim. Less than 5% of the Israeli Armed Forces (IDF) is Haredi, yet West Bank settlements, whose occupants are almost entirely Haredi, (all settlements are considered illegal by the US and the UN; some of even considered illegal by Israeli law) are protected by the IDF. (1)
In a 2021 study by the Atlantic Council, Dan Perry observed that: “Modern Israel cannot survive this—there will be no one to fund it—unless the Haredim fundamentally change their behavior and worldview, of which there are no signs. It is more reasonable to foresee that, if anything, the process will be accelerated by secular flight.” (3)
In sum, Israeli society is increasingly out of whack; like lopsided building. Today, there is a growing - but stilll minority - who seem to be compelling a shrinking - but still numerical majority - to feed, cloth, house, educate, provide medical care and most especially, defend them. This is the essence of the “reforms” of the current Netanyahu Government, all of which first depend on the passage of the Judicial Reform. Without substantial changes, new buttresses provided from somewhere (diaspora orthodox communities, evangelical Christians or “friends” like Russia’s Putin) or a reversal of the laws of physics, the building will tumble and with it, a 2000+ year-old dream of a revived Jewish State.
Sources:
https://www.timesofisrael.com/haredi-population-growing-twice-as-fast-as-total-israeli-population-report/
https://www.haaretz.com/2021-11-22/ty-article/.premium/population-forecast-for-2050-one-out-of-three-israeli-jews-will-be-ultra-orthodox/0000017f-ed48-d4cd-af7f-ed7879060000
https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/menasource/the-real-threat-to-modern-israel/
https://www.timesofisrael.com/are-haredi-political-parties-standing-in-the-way-of-their-communitys-prosperity/