Item #437 to worry about: Nuclear Confrontation between Israel and Iran
Would Netanyahu actually attack Iran to save himself?
For those who revel in the richness of today’s doomsday scenarios, beyond the militarization of America’s cities and other daily Trump trauma, there is now another fun apocalyptic forecast increasing in intensity: nuclear Iran.
Donald Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu have much in common. On the other hand, there are a few key stark differences. One that is most striking is the contrast between word and deed of the two leaders. Both are entirely reliable but in opposite ways. DJT almost always does less than what he says. BN (no middle name) almost always does more than what he says. This is why the US is removing “non-essential” personnel from its Embassy in Baghdad. Following yet another near-but-not-quite death threat to his fragile governing coalition, and in line with Iran’s increasingly bellicose threats while ramping up its nuclear program (more below), it is more likely than it was a week ago that some escalation in the Iran-Israel confrontation is imminent. Both countries have good, domestic political reasons to move in this direction.
Israel’s political problems, as always, most importantly domestic but also international, have increased in the last 48 hours with yet another renewed bout of brinksmanship by the far right, tiny but powerful coalition partners led by Smotrich and Ben Givr. Yesterday’s Knesset (parliamentary) vote was 61-53 in opposition to dissolution of the government. 61 is the threshold vote required in the 120 seat Israeli Knesset. The issue, as usual, is the treatment of orthodox men of military service age (they are historically exempt). As Israel ramps up its brutal action in Gaza and now contemplates further military action, coupled with an increase of military age emigrants, the government is under pressure to find more soldiers. Of course, all of this occurs against the long-standing backdrop of Netanyahu’s serious personal legal jeopardy which many believe has been the single biggest driver of his behavior since the Gaza Crisis began.
For Iran’s part, its international setbacks – Hezbollah and the Houthi defeats – are already well documented. But domestic affairs weigh more heavily. Not only are international sanctions exacerbating domestic economic hardship (the Iranian Rial has lost over 50% of its value against the US dollar in the last year), but recently (mid-May 2025) there was a truckers’ strike and concomitant port explosion that not only angered – and terrified – the regime but were also an illustration of the public eruption of desperation about how bad things are domestically.
Thus, as is almost always true historically, the best way to divert attention for domestic woes is through international “adventurism.” Both Israel and Iran have good reasons for this approach, which is why Trump is backing away from a rosy prognosis of peaceful progress in Iran nuclear talks. Yesterday (June 11, 2025) Trump said: “… it would be nicer to do it without warfare, without people dying, it’s so much nicer to do it. But I don’t think I see the same level of enthusiasm for them to make a deal."
So, for those seeking maximum overload of things to worry about as Spring moves toward Summer, one might add nuclear confrontation between Iran and Israel to the laundry list of current fear.
Sources
https://www.france24.com/en/middle-east/20250612-israel-knesset-parliament
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/05/09/opinion/trump-iran-israel.html?searchResultPosition=6
https://www.thecairoreview.com/essays/tehrans-red-lines-trumps-maximum-pressure-and-regime-survival/
https://www.dictionary.com/browse/adventurism
https://www.dw.com/en/irans-middle-class-bears-brunt-of-economic-crisis/a-72085209