A new, Centrist Party?

I have to admit that I was 100% wrong about the election of 2024.  After the Biden/Trump debate, I knew that Biden would not be the nominee and was excited to predict that whoever would be the nominee, would be terrific and would beat Trump.  I had assumed there would be an open Convention and that any number of highly qualified Democrats would rise to the top.  My favorites were Meg Whitmer and Amy Klobuchar for the combination of their ability to beat Trump and win in red states.  Of course, the open Convention didn’t happen, and Kamala Harris was anointed.  Not a great beginning, I thought, but ok.

Then the campaign started.  Though Kamala Harris was not my first choice, it was obvious to me there was no contest vis a vis Trump.  I wrote a check and went to the one event in Maine (where I live) with the most senior surrogate (Doug Emhoff).  The event (of which I was at the co-host funding level) was disappointing on every level.  Emhoff said nothing, took no questions, and the largest Democratic donors in the State were treated like pre-school children.  I expressed that frustration to the organizers.  I never received a reply, nor, by the way, a thank you.  What I did receiver were at least 3 pleas a day for the next 100 days to send “even $5” to the Democratic machine.  Actually, more that 100 days because (unbelievably), I kept getting robot emails for “just $5” even after the election and the total wipe-out of the Democrats in both houses of Congress as well as the White House.

At the time I supported Harris, however, and as the Campaign wore on, I warmed to her and felt sufficiently confident that especially women who were passionate about reproductive rights would turn out en masse for the Democrats.  I thought Dems would not only win the White House but also both houses of Congress and I wrote about how important and rejuvenating it would be for the Republican Party to finally be rid of the Trump cancer and be in a position for a completely fresh start.  I couldn’t imagine how Trump could overcome the rejection of at least half of this cabinet, 200 high ranking military officers and hundreds of Republican legislators at the national and local level, would not sway the non-MAGA members of the Party.  Though never a huge fan of our Republican Senator Susan Collins, I was impressed when she declared publicly that she would not vote for Trump, just as I was appalled that our nominally Democratic Congressman, Jared Golden, felt compelled to say he would be “ok” with a Trump victory.  The contrast amongst my own representatives was glaring.

The short, but grotesque, campaign carried on.  The Democrats made it clear that the only thing they cared about was money.  Trump continued being Trump which, it seemed, made no difference since his vileness had already been “baked in.”  My one hope had been that in the 4 years of the Biden Administration and with the ultimate jurist, Merrick Garland, as Attorney General, the Democrats might be able to make any one of the dozens (if not hundreds) of cases against Trump stick (including treason, the case I thought was by far the most egregious).  None of that happened.  The only case after 4 years that made it through the gauntlet of our rusted, broken legal system was the trivial filing-untrue-financial statements case associated with the only rape case (amongst dozens) that stuck:  E Jean Carroll.  That resulted in 34 felony convictions (at the State and not Federal level and thus obviously immune from Federal “political interference”).  Of course, now, even that one pyrrhic victory will be vacated.

What was worse was that Trump, with his finger solidly on the pulse of the vilest instincts of a substantial portion of the electorate, was able to make non-issues into decisive issues, eclipsing (or trumping) the things that really matter.  The most obvious of these was the commercial about Kamala Harris caring about “they/them” while Trump cares about “you.”  The elevation of the dog whistle about trans rights (“your kids go off to school one sex and come home a different one”) was so absurd, I thought surely people would realize that “you’ll never have to vote again,” and “I’ll only be a dictator on day 1,” would trounce concern about the .001% of people who are trans.  I was wrong.  The culture wars are easy to understand.  The threat to Democracy, increasing income inequality, and abandoning the international order the United States largely created after the Second World War are, for a majority of Americans, less understandable and less importantthan which pronoun people choose. 

This miscalculation on my part grew larger as election day approached.  I continued not to believe the polls and thought that like in Kansas and Ohio, women would save the Democratic ticket because reproductive rights is an actual real issue and women of all stripes would see their most fundamental rights in jeopardy.  It turned out I was half right.  Women did vote to protect their reproductive rights in 8 of the 10 states that pursued state-level ballot initiatives. But then they (paradoxically), turned around and voted for Trump and also (mostly) Republican Senators and Representatives.  That, coupled with Trump’s success in harnessing the “bro politics” resulted in the epic, historic win for the Republicans.

So, the opportunity to reinvent itself turns out to have been an accurate prediction, except it is for the opposite party than the one I had assumed would be in the rebuilding phase.  The gravitational pull of the past is very strong.  Both the Republicans and the Democrats would have had an uphill battle reforming themselves.  Politicians tend to be the laggards, not the leaders, of change.  Now it is the Democrats who have the challenge of re-inventing themselves, facing the same headwinds against reform that any institutionalized party faces.  My hope would actually be for there to be a new, third Centrist Party to arise from the ashes, but when it costs billions to run a national party, it is hard to see a “start-up” reach that escape velocity.  On the other hand, real change only comes from extremis.  Maybe the combination of what is about to happen for the next 4 years, and the total rout of the Democrats in 2024, will lead to real change.  One can only hope.